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late in the summer moisture starts

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coming up the west coast of Mexico and

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entering the southwestern US and you

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transition from a relatively dry early

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season to something that's more prone to

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thunderstorms and the attendant flash

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floods relatively small amounts of rain

8
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in a desert condition can lead to a

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flash flood even if it's a long way away

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the ground is not very good at absorbing

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water so instead it very quickly runs

12
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off and can run down channels for miles

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perhaps catching people unaware

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in a general sort of way we know that it

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rains in the summer and doesn't rain the

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rest of the year but the question is is

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it strong or is it weak these kind of

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long-range forecast is still quite

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challenging even at the shorter scale

20
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the monsoon consists of what are called

21
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breaks and then surges and being able to

22
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forecast those breaks and surges a few

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days or weeks in advance would be a

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really great thing there's a certain

25
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capability to do that now but if we

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understand the precipitation processes

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better that will give us a better handle

28
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on how the heat is released in the

29
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dynamical systems that are contributing

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to the breaks and surges